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In-depth investment research and commentary from Litman Gregory and our Research Alliance

Jan 21, 2020 Research Alliance Global Central Banks Fueling a Ponzi Market—Guggenheim Investments

Even though central bank easing has put off recession until 2021 or perhaps 2022, ultimately we will reach a tipping point when investors will awaken to the rising tide of defaults and downgrades.

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Dec 23, 2019 Research Alliance Risk and Reward of 'Mid-Cycle' Rate Cuts—Guggenheim Investments

In all likelihood, the Fed has successfully staved off recession, but current spreads reflect just how little upside there is in credit.

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Nov 01, 2019 Research Alliance Powell Tempers the Fed’s “Hawkish Cut”—Thornburg

While the Fed met expectations in its latest interest rate reduction, it signaled that hikes are a long way off.

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Oct 16, 2019 Research Alliance Repo Market Rate Spikes, Bank Regulation and the QE Misnomer—Thornburg

Recent stress in repo markets reflect the confluence of a shrunken Fed balance sheet amid steady economic growth and increasing capital and liquidity regulations on banks.

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Sep 18, 2019 Research Alliance Forecasting the Next Recession: Will Rate Cuts Be Enough?—Guggenheim Investments

History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.

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Aug 26, 2019 Research Alliance Fixed-Income Outlook: Third Quarter 2019—Guggenheim Investments

Credit spreads could get tighter in this liquidity-driven rally, but history has shown that the potential for widening from here is much greater.

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Aug 08, 2019 Research Alliance The Fed Should Hike Interest Rates, Not Cut Them—Guggenheim

By almost every measure policy makers should be considering another rate hike in anticipation of potential economic overheating from looming limitations on output. Instead, debate has been focused on the need to take preemptive action to avoid a potential slowdown.

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Aug 08, 2019 Research Alliance Portfolio Allocation Amid the Tidal Effects of Renewed Fed Easing—Thornburg

The Fed is poised to join the global easing bandwagon, fueling a surge in risk asset prices. As market distortions from easy money grow...

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Jul 18, 2019 Second Quarter 2019 Research Call Replay

Listen to a replay of our second quarter 2019 Litman Gregory research team webinar. Topics covered (among others): macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, yield curve inversion, expected returns for U.S. and European stocks, alternatives, and fixed income positioning changes. The presentation slides are available at the bottom of the page under Resources.

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Jul 17, 2019 Research Alliance High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook Report—Guggenheim Investments

Investors may be tempted to go down in credit quality in anticipation of a Fed-induced rally in leveraged credit. History suggests this would be ill-advised.

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